Decision Day scenarios for the Houston Dynamo
(image via Houston Dynamo FC)
For the first time in some time, Decision Day carries a lot of importance for Houston Dynamo fans. The club is back in the MLS Cup Playoffs for the first time since 2017 and the final day of the regular season will determine Houston’s seed in the Western Conference and who they will play in the first-round best-of-three series. The Dynamo can’t finish lower than the sixth seed.
The matches this weekend for the teams involved in where Houston could end up are:
Colorado Rapids vs Real Salt Lake
St. Louis CITY SC vs Seattle Sounders
Vancouver Whitecaps vs LAFC
We tried to do all the match and work out all the possibilities, to the best of our abilities. So, here’s what we came up with.
Seeding Scenarios
Dynamo finish as #2 seed
· Seattle lose, AND
· LAFC lose, AND
· Houston win, AND
· Dynamo make up four goal difference on LAFC
It isn’t the most likely of scenarios but there is at least an outside shot. Who would have predicted St. Louis and Houston as the top two teams in the Western Conference before this season started?
Dynamo finish as #3 seed
· Seattle lose and Dynamo win, OR
· LAFC lose and Dynamo win and make up four goal difference on LAFC
If Seattle loses and the Dynamo win, they’ll vault the Sounders into third. To pass LAFC the Dynamo need to win and have the Black and Gold lose while also shifting the goal difference. LAFC is currently +15 and the Dynamo are +11. A win against Portland will keep the Dynamo in the top four and have them hosting two games in the best-of-three round.
Dynamo finish as #4 seed
· Dynamo, Seattle, and LAFC win, OR
· Dynamo draw and RSL and Vancouver lose, OR
· Dynamo lose and RSL and Vancouver lose, OR
· Dynamo lose and RSL and Vancouver draw
If all the teams above Houston win Saturday, the Dynamo will stay put in fourth place, as long as RSL and Vancouver do not win. The Dynamo can even draw in Portland and stay in fourth if the two teams behind them don’t lose. Houston can lose in Portland and stay in fourth if both those teams do not win.
Dynamo finish as #5 seed
· Dynamo lose, RSL wins, and Vancouver draws or loses, OR
· Dynamo lose, Vancouver wins, and RSL draws or loses, OR
· Dynamo draw, RSL wins, and Vancouver draws or loses, OR
· Dynamo draw, RSL wins, and Vancouver draws or loses
A loss or draw by the Dynamo in Portland and one of Vancouver or RSL winning their match will see them jump Houston into fourth.
Dynamo finish as #6 seed
· Dynamo lose, RSL wins, and Vancouver wins, OR
· Dynamo draw, RSL wins, and Vancouver wins
A loss or draw by the Dynamo and both RSL and Vancouver winning will have both go ahead of Houston in the table, bumping the Dynamo to 6th place.
Opponent Scenarios
Home-field advantage vs Portland, Dallas, San Jose, Sporting Kansas City, or Minnesota
If the Dynamo somehow get to the second seed, they will host two of the three matches in the first round series against the seven seed. There are still five teams fighting to make the playoffs and the Dynamo could play any of them. This is the unlikeliest scenario.
Home-field advantage vs Seattle
There is a chance that Seattle could tumble all the way down to sixth place if they lose and all three of the Dynamo, RSL, and Vancouver lose. This would put the Dynamo into third place meaning they would play the Sounders and have home-field advantage, hosting game one and game three (if necessary).
Home-field advantage vs Real Salt Lake
If everything stays as it is, meaning Houston, RSL, and Vancouver don’t change spots in the table, the Dynamo will host Real Salt Lake in the first round with home-field advantage. The Dynamo beat RSL in the USOC semifinal and won in Utah just days later in league play.
Home-field advantage vs Vancouver
If the Dynamo stay in fourth and Vancouver jumps RSL for fifth, Houston will host the Whitecaps in the first round with home-field advantage. The two teams played very exciting matches this season, each winning big at their own stadium.
On the road vs Real Salt Lake
If the Dynamo finish as the fifth seed and RSL moves to number four, the Dynamo will play the second game of the three-game series at home and have to play RSL on the road in the first match and third (if necessary).
On the road vs Vancouver
If the Dynamo finish as the fifth seed and Vancouver moves to number four, the Dynamo will play the second game of the three-game series at home and have to play the Whitecaps on the road in the first match and third (if necessary).
On the road vs Seattle
If the Dynamo fall to sixth place, with RSL and Vancouver winning, and Seattle can get at least a point in St. Louis, Houston will play the second game of the three-game series at home and have to play in Seattle in the first match and third (if necessary).
On the road vs LAFC
If the Dynamo fall to sixth place, with RSL and Vancouver winning, and Seattle jumps LAFC into second place, Houston will play the second game of the three-game series at home and have to play in Los Angeles in the first match and third (if necessary).
