How can the Dynamo advance in Leagues Cup?

(image via Houston Dynamo FC)

The Houston Dynamo failed to win Tuesday night, meaning their fate is not in their own hands in terms of advancing to the Round of 32 in the Leagues Cup. Houston will have to wait for the result of Saturday’s match between Orlando City and Santos Laguna. There are a number of things that could happen in that match, leaving the Dynamo as group winners, runners-up, or eliminated from the tournament.

The Dynamo advance and win the group if…

Houston can win the group and move on to play Inter Miami in these scenarios.

Orlando and Santos draw 0-0 or 1-1 and Santos wins the penalty shootout

This result would give all three teams in the group three points. The first tiebreaker is head-to-head and each team will have “beaten” the other, via penalty kicks. The second tiebreaker is better goal differential, which everyone would be at zero because of three draws. The third tiebreaker is goals scored. In this scenario, the Dynamo would have three goals, Orlando would have one or two, and Santos would have two or three. If the Dynamo and Santos both have three goals scored, the two teams would also have three goals conceded and the fifth tiebreaker, fair play, would come into the equation. The Dynamo received no yellow cards in their two matches, meaning they would win out on that tiebreaker.

The Dynamo advance and finish second in the group if…

Houston can finish second in the group and advance to play Pachuca in these scenarios.

Orlando or Santos win the game in regulation time

A win by either team would mean they win the group, either Orlando with five points or Santos with four. The loser of the game would finish third in the group and be eliminated, either Orlando with two points or Santos with one.

Orlando and Santos draw and Orlando wins the penalty shootout

If the game ends in a draw, of any score, and Orlando wins in penalties, Orlando will win the group with the Dynamo finishing second. This scenario would have Orlando finishing with four points, the Dynamo with three, and Santos with two.

Orlando and Santos draw 2-2 and Santos wins the penalty shootout

This would give all teams three points. Head-to-head and goal differential would be even, and the third tiebreaker of goals scored would be used. Santos would have four goals, putting them as group winner. The Dynamo and Orlando would both have three goals scored and three goals conceded. The Dynamo would then win the Fair Play tiebreaker because they have no yellow cards. Orlando had four in their match against Houston.

The Dynamo are eliminated as the third-place team in the group if…

The Dynamo can still be eliminated from Leagues Cup in the following scenario.

Orlando and Santos draw 3-3 or by a higher number of goals and Santos wins the penalty shootout

This situation would once again give all three teams in the group three points. The head-to-head and goal differential tiebreakers would once again finish even. The third tiebreaker of goals scored would knock the Dynamo out. Santos would have five goals (or more) and Orlando would have four (or more). The Dynamo’s three would leave them third in the group.

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