Who should the Houston Dynamo protect in the 2024 MLS Expansion Draft?

(image via Houston Dynamo FC)

One week from today, on Wednesday, December 11, Major League Soccer’s newest club will get the chance to add more players in this year’s MLS Expansion Draft. San Diego FC, who will begin play in 2025, will get the chance to select up to five players, with only one player from any one club.

Each of the 29 existing MLS teams will be able to protect 12 players from their Senior and Supplemental rosters. Here is a refresher of the rules on protecting players:

• If a player’s contract expires at the end of 2024, he will still be considered part of the club’s Roster.

• If a club protects a player, the club is not obligated to exercise the player’s option. The club may renegotiate a new contract with the player as in previous years, subject to the CBA.

• Generation adidas players who occupy Roster Slots 21-24 and Homegrown Players 25 years old and under in the year in which the Expansion Draft takes place on a club’s Roster at the end of the 2024 MLS Season are automatically protected. Clubs do not have to use a protected slot on them.

• Designated Players and other discretionary players are NOT automatically protected (i.e., clubs must choose whether to protect such players and if such player is not protected, he will be available for selection in the Expansion Draft).

• If a player has a no-trade clause in his contract, his MLS club must protect him, and he will count as one of the 12 players who may be protected.

• Clubs with four or more international players must protect at least three international players, excluding any automatically protected players. If a Club has only three international players, it must protect two. If a Club has only two international players, it must protect one. A Club that has only one international player is not required to protect that player.

As clear as most MLS rules, right? If the Dynamo do have a player selected by San Diego to add to their roster, or use as trade bait, Houston will receive $50,000 in General Allocation Money. So, which players could the Dynamo be at risk of losing?

Houston gets to protect 12 players and some players are automatically protected. Brooklyn Raines is the only Homegrown Player left on the roster and will not be eligible to be picked. Sebastian Rodriguez is becoming a Homegrown Player this season but he is technically not on the first team roster yet. We don’t know who has a no-trade clause and would have to be protected so we’ll go on the assumption that no player on the Dynamo does. So who does this leave? Let’s look at the players they will almost certainly protect.

1. Aliyu Ibrahim

2. Artur

3. Amine Bassi

4. Coco Carrasquilla

5. Griffin Dorsey

6. Franco Escobar

7. Micael

8. Ezequiel Ponce

9. Erik Sviatchenko

These nine players are all starters and key pieces to the team. Escobar has flirted with leaving, there were rumors Inter Miami wanted him last season, but it seems like he is fully committed to Houston. That leaves three more players the Dynamo can protect. So, who else?

10. Sebastian Kowalczyk

11. Ethan Bartlow

Kowalczyk and Bartlow are two of the better depth pieces the Dynamo have. Kowalczyk may even be a starter this season depending on where Carrasquilla plays and what new signings join the team. Bartlow is really the backup for any of the defensive positions now that Daniel Steres and Tate Schmitt are gone. So, one more spot is left.

The 12th spot probably comes down to Nelson Quinones and Lawrence Ennali. The German probably gets protected because a) his injury was less severe, b) he hasn’t missed an entire season, and c) he just joined this summer and we saw sparks of real promise before his injury. So…

12. Lawrence Ennali

This isn’t to say Quinones doesn’t also have a lot of promise and upside but GM Pat Onstad has stated how his injury was much more severe that Ennali’s and he has been out for quite a while. He should recover well but there is no guarantee you get what you saw in 2023 from the Colombian when he returns.

That would leave players like Quinones, Exon Arzu, Sebastian Ferreira, and Andrew Tarbell available. Would San Diego take a punt on a guy like Quinones coming back from a major injury or another dynamic young player like Arzu? Maybe go for an established goalkeeper in Tarbell? Let’s be real with ourselves, they aren’t touching Ferreira and his DP contract.

These are the risks you have to take, and with San Diego only getting five picks, it’s a small risk the Dynamo lose a player. If you were Onstad and technical director Asher Mendelsohn, who would you protect? Do you agree with our 12? Let us know!